Tile stats: Housing market slump takes its toll on demand

Like the rest of flooring in 2024—including the behemoth resilient category—tile declined in both sales and volume last year due to various factors, most significantly the struggling housing market and economic uncertainty.

When the dust settled, ceramic experienced about a 7.5% decline in dollars in 2024 to $2.984 billion vs. $3.226 billion in 2023, according to Floor Covering News research. Despite the drop, ceramic dollars are still up slightly from four years ago when ceramic tile experienced its first drop in years. In 2020, that number was $2.844 billion, down from 2019’s $2.994.

Flooring volume also found itself in the red, registering a 6.3% decline to 2.161 billion square feet from 2.306 billion square feet in 2023, its lowest level since 2014. The year 2015 was a close second with 2.19 billion square feet but the ensuing eight years saw volume above at least 2.3 billion until last year’s drop.

While this is the tile category’s second consecutive dollar sales decline, it is still a 4.9% increase from 2020’s $2.844 billion when the category experienced its first decline since 2009 amid the Great Recession.

Just three years ago the category experienced a record high—2022 dollars were $3.507 billion—and the 2.453 billion square feet was the fourth-highest total since 2006 when housing sales reached unprecedented levels. It’s not too unreasonable to expect a decline from such lofty numbers, especially after the hardship the housing market continues to face.

Putting things into perspective, in 2014 FCNews research showed the ceramic market clocked in at $2.38 billion, which was up 6.2% from 2013’s $2.241 billion and an impressive 22.8% from 2012’s $1.938. It was the category’s fifth consecutive year of growth, which wouldn’t wane until 2020’s 5% decrease in dollar sales and 3.5% drop-off in volume. In the last 10 years, that is a 23.3% increase in dollar sales.

The category also kept its standing in 2024 as the third-largest sector in flooring, representing about 12.5% of the flooring industry’s total $23.955 billion and 12.6% of the flooring industry’s total 17.206 billion square feet sold. In terms of dollar share, that’s just slightly down from 2023’s 12.8% but on par with 2022’s 12.5% and up from 2021’s 11.5% share.

In terms of volume, ceramic garnered 12.6% of total square feet, or 2.161 billion of the 17.206-billion-square-foot pie. It also grabbed 22.3% of total hard surface volume, which also includes resilient, wood, laminate and rubber.

Housing slowdown hits hard

The majority of tile’s challenges in 2024 came from the housing market. Like the rest of the industry, the category was impacted by still-high interest rates and slowing activity.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, total housing starts for 2024 were 1.36 million, a 3.9% decline from the 1.42 million total in 2023. Single-family starts in 2024 totaled 1.01 million, up 6.5% from the previous year. However, multifamily starts were down 25% from 2023.

“Tile consumption decreased for the third straight year in 2024 largely due to issues in the residential market, with which the tile industry is closely connected,” Eric Astrachan, Tile Council of North America (TCNA) executive director, told FCNews. “Feeling the pinch from high mortgage rates, inflation, rising material costs, labor shortages, increasing home prices and nervous buyers, the housing market continued to decline.”

Larry Browder, executive vice president of sales at Crossville, agreed, noting, “The high mortgage rates, the global market uncertainty (tariffs), have impacted new construction and renovation activity, which are two key drivers of tile demand. We saw homeowners choosing to stay in place—due to elevated borrowing costs and economic uncertainty—which delayed remodeling projects as well. Typically when new home construction is down, replacement/remodel is up, or vice versa—but for one of the first times that I can remember in a long time, the high mortgage rates and the global market uncertainty has really put a damper on both.”

Raj Shah, co-CEO, MSI, added, “With the high interest rates fighting inflation, overall home sales and renovations were kept deflated compared to historical averages. This led to the overall reduction in demand for tile.”

TCNA’s Astrachan added that if there is a recovery in housing, the ceramic tile market will follow suit. “There is pent-up demand for housing as many potential homeowners have been sidelined due to high interest rates and other issues, making a home purchase unaffordable,” he said. “While there are forecasts that new and existing home sales will improve, and remodeling is expected to experience modest growth throughout the year, NAHB expects to see another year of decline in new home starts as well as relatively high mortgage rates, which could hamper any potential market bounce back.”

On the positive side, overall total U.S. construction spending increased for the 13th year in a row, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, reaching an all-time high of $2.15 trillion in 2024, up 6.5% from the preceding year.

Imports vs. domestic

For the third consecutive year—after a 15-year high—U.S. ceramic tile imports were at 1.93 billion square feet in 2024, a 3.5% decline from the prior year, according to the TCNA. That’s below 2020 levels when imports sat at 1.97 billion square feet. In terms of consumption, imports comprised 71.5% of 2024 U.S. tile consumption by volume, up from 70.2% in 2023.

India was the largest exporter to the U.S. by volume for the second straight year with a 20.4% share of U.S. imports, followed by Spain (17.6%) and Italy (16.0%), according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. The five countries from which the most tiles were imported in 2024 based on volume were: India, Spain, Italy, Mexico and Brazil.

Italy remained the largest exporter to the U.S. on a dollar basis (CIF + duty), comprising 29.2% of 2024 U.S. imports, followed by Spain with a 24.8% share and Mexico with an 11.2% share.

In regard to India’s takeover, several U.S. manufacturers—representing over 90% of all U.S. ceramic tile manufacturing—filed anti-dumping and countervailing duty petitions last April with the federal government seeking the imposition of substantial tariffs on imports of ceramic tile from India to remedy unfairly low-priced imports that have injured domestic manufacturers and flooded the market with uncertified porcelain tiles.

“Ceramic tile exporters in India benefit from Indian government subsidies and have been dumping unfairly low-priced tile in the U.S. market, injuring domestic manufacturers,” Astrachan explained. “The anti-dumping petition sought the imposition of tariffs estimated between 328% to 489% in response to ongoing dumping, and the countervailing duty (or anti-subsidy) petition sought the imposition of additional tariffs to remedy the impact of the numerous Indian government subsidies.”

Astrachan added that on May 19, the U.S. International Trade Commission unanimously determined that “U.S. industry is threatened with material injury by reason of imports of ceramic tile from India.

“While the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) did find that countervailable subsidies are being provided to Indian exporters of ceramic tile by the government of India, they also determined that ceramic tile from India is not being sold in the United States at less-than-fair-value,” he said. “The Coalition clearly disagrees and on May 23 it appealed DOC’s AD/CVD determinations with the U.S. Court of International Trade.”

On the domestic side, U.S. manufacturers shipped 769.9 million square feet of ceramic tile domestically in 2024, down 9.1% from the prior year and the lowest annual total since 2013, according to the TCNA.

U.S. shipments’ share of total U.S. consumption by volume last year was 28.5%, down from 29.8% in 2023. Even so, domestically produced tiles’ share of total U.S. consumption far outpaced the shares of any individual country exporting to the U.S. The next highest shares of total consumption by volume were held by India (14.6%), Spain (12.6%) and Italy (11.4%), research shows.

By value, U.S. FOB factory sales of domestic shipments (less exports) in 2024 were $1.37 billion, an 8.4% decrease from the previous year. U.S. shipments comprised 36.2% of total U.S. tile consumption by value, down from 36.9% in 2023.

The per unit value of domestic shipments (less exports) in 2024 was $1.79 per square foot, up from $1.77 per square foot the preceding year.

According to the DOC, U.S. ceramic tile exports in 2024 were 41.1 million square feet, down 19.5% from the previous year. The vast majority of U.S. exports by volume went to our North American neighbors, Canada (78.1%) and Mexico (9.9%).

U.S. exports by value in 2024 were $46.4 million, down 13% from 2023.

Commercial market

While the residential ceramic market hit some headwinds again in 2024, the commercial market fared a bit better while still ceding some share to its counterpart.

According to FCNews research, residential ceramic flooring garnered about 62% of overall ceramic sales while commercial lost minor ground from its previous 40% to around 38% in 2024—or $1.134 billion of the total $2.984 billion. In volume, that’s 821 million square feet of the total 2.161-billion-square- foot pie.

“The commercial market was more stable than residential in 2024,” Randall Sheehe, vice president of national accounts at Emser Tile, told FCNews. “While both segments faced headwinds, residential was hit harder by high mortgage rates and a slowdown in remodeling. In contrast, commercial activity—particularly in healthcare, education and hospitality—remained more resilient. Institutional investment and long-term planning helped sustain demand, and we saw continued interest in tile for its durability, hygiene and design flexibility.”

Pricing

Pricing has been an interesting mix since 2021 when the average price of tile jumped from $1.18, which had hovered there for at least six years prior, to $1.24. Then in 2022 it skyrocketed 15% to $1.43. The following year it dropped slightly to $1.40 and 2024 followed its downward trajectory to average about $1.38.

“We definitely still see pricing pressure in the marketplace,” said Scott Maslowski, executive vice president, sales and operations at Dal-Tile. “Inflation was trying to push pricing up, but at the same time both the builder and the residential remodel consumer were pushing costs down, meaning they were devaluing the product or looking for cheaper alternatives. So it was kind of a mixed bag.”

Maslowski noted that pricing held up better in the commercial segment. “I think the value and the product selection was still a little bit more relevant in the commercial segment. So you had a little bit better differentiation between square footage and dollars.”

Challenges vs. bright spots

Challenges abound for the tile category—and not all are related to housing. Perhaps the hardest hit of all flooring materials, labor shortages are driving down demand for tile.

“Beyond macroeconomic factors, the industry continued to grapple with a shortage of qualified installers, which created bottlenecks and extended project lead timelines,” Emser’s Sheehe explained. “Additionally, the rise of resilient flooring—especially LVT and SPC—put pressure on ceramic in certain segments due to its ease of installation and perceived value. On a personal note, I would encourage our industry partners to get involved with solving the labor shortage we are all experiencing. The Floor Covering Education Foundation has developed a framework and curriculum to help address and solve for this issue.”

TCNA’s Astrachan agreed, noting, “With qualified labor shortages affecting both installation and manufacturing, our industry is focusing on education as a foundation for investment—especially in areas where industry resources and support are clustered, like the Tennessee Tile Valley. In partnership with eight Tennessee-based tile manufacturers, we’ve initiated the Tennessee Workforce Development Project—a strategic initiative aimed at strengthening the state’s ceramic tile manufacturing labor force for optimal impact and long-term efficacy.”

However, the sun must shine again and suppliers agree that tile remains one of the most aspirational and truly design-savvy and technologically innovative categories in the flooring industry, which will continue to draw in consumers.

“The wonderful thing about tile is you’ve got an incredible sustainability story and from a visual perspective, it is a leader in the marketplace in regard to style and design,” Daltile’s Maslowski said. “The product is used interior and exterior. So there are a lot of options where the product still has a place to succeed even in a slowing economy. And while the market is slowing, it hasn’t stopped—there’s still plenty of opportunity in the marketplace.”

AHF’s Browder agreed, noting, “There’s been a lot of innovation in the category around not only design but the surfacing or the texturing of product. Porcelain tile is also the most waterproof product and option that’s out there, and I think the category is starting to do a better job telling that story. We’ve been forced to tell that story in a more meaningful way. We’re trying to educate the consumer on the performance aspects of the product, which really make it a better choice, especially for active households.”

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