Flooring retailers are entering the final four months of a Presidential election year mostly pleased with how the first eight months played out—albeit with the understanding that the toughest stretch is yet to come.
While the general consensus is that many dealers are down in 2024 vs. the year-ago period, it is not universal. In fact, some groups are seeing an increase, and some individual stores are even enjoying a record year.
“What’s surprising is how well we are doing,” said Olga Robertson, president of the FCA Network, Shorewood, Ill. “FCA Network is exceeding the industry stats, and from what I understand better than some other groups with nice increases over last year. Part of the equation is to have the right pricing, and certain categories like laminate, for example, helped us move the needle.”
Then there are individual dealers who are thriving. A case in point is Carpeting by Mike, Somerset, Wis., which is in the midst of its best year ever, up 32% over 2023. “Very surprised, indeed,” said Typhannie Harker, owner. “We are having a record year, and August was a record month for us. I took this company over in 2018 and track sales numbers for every month. This month is the highest in six and half years. The month we just surpassed was May 2021.”
Meanwhile, Grigsby’s Carpet, Tile & Hardwood, an NFA member, is currently just a half point off a record-setting 2023. “We are counting that as a win considering how many people I have heard are way off,” said Penny Carnino, COO. “When I was asked earlier this year how I felt the year would be I said I thought it would be difficult as it is an election year. To my surprise, we have fared rather well the first seven months. We have some big commercial jobs that have yet to close out, so my hope is that those will help keep our numbers up.”
Grigsby’s residential business is still soft, Carnino reported, although she has seen a recent uptick in traffic. “People are so cautious right now with inflation and the uncertainty of the election. We are trying to advertise good values for our consumers and hope that it continues to drive sales.”
Columbus, Ohio-based America’s Floor Source (AFS) reported its overall business is trending higher on the strength of a solid second quarter that offset a slow first quarter in the builder segment. “Our retail, wholesale and commercial businesses have been particularly strong, which is encouraging,” said Michel Vermette, CEO/CFO. “Our 2024 results are a reminder that we need to manage the business conservatively and have access to capital, so we are able to invest in new opportunities and programs. Our investments in 2023 with new branding, additional sales associates, increased marketing and technology are paying off for AFS, and I expect that 2025 could be a special year if we get some relief in interest rates. We are bullish on our future.”
Glass half full
There is the sense among flooring retailers that business will start to pick up once the Presidential election is over. That, coupled with at least one round of interest rate cuts, has dealers looking forward to the future, especially 2025 and beyond. “We know elections tend to distract customers from making big purchases,” Vermette said. “This will naturally delay some demand, but we expect a better second half. Our backlog is at record levels, and we continue to invest in our people and business.”
Marshall Flooring, Mayfield Heights, Ohio, is another dealer that has met or exceeded its monthly targets in 2024 due to an increase in its commercial and builder business. The company is hopeful that the remainder of 2024 stays strong and that retail consumers regain the confidence to spend. “I expect a rate cut to have a positive impact, which should help,” said Matt Wien, partner.
On that last point, several dealers said they expect a 25-basis point cut to have a negligible impact on the overall flooring market, and a 50-basis point cut only marginally better. As FCA Network’s Robertson explained, “I expect the fourth quarter to be challenging even when the Fed lowers interest rates, which they should have done weeks ago by following the European Central Bank. That being said, even if it goes down 50 basis points or more it won’t help those who still can’t afford a home in this heated market because there’s a shortage of available homes; when that happens it’s a sellers’ market.”
For some, the back-to-school season brings a fresh perspective on the fall. “Now that the kids are back in school—and interest rates will hopefully be cut in September—we are expecting business to pick up slightly,” said Susan Hadinger, CEO of Naples, Fla.-based Hadinger Flooring. “Election years always create uncertainty, so we are looking forward to business improving in November. That should usher in a strong season.”
To invigorate business after a sluggish first half, Steve Weisberg, president of Crest Flooring, Allentown, Pa., turned to some of his tried-and-true measures. “We have been aggressively promoting finance offers and cash-back incentives, and the results have been pleasing. Lowering interest rates seem to be the jump-start the mills are hoping for in order to get the housing market moving. Hopefully that will happen.”
In the meantime, Robertson has this message for her FCA members, who, so far, have been able to weather all storms. “I’ve told them time and again to control what you can control. Simply put—work harder than the next guy, put in the time and you will reap the rewards as we move into 2025.”
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