Ceramic: State of the industry 2025

Crossville’s Portland Cliff

After another challenging year, the U.S. ceramic tile market is closing out 2025 with continued contraction and uneven momentum across key segments. A mix of economic pressures—high mortgage rates, tariff volatility and wavering consumer confidence—continued to suppress demand in both new residential and residential remodel. At the same time, commercial work remained comparatively stable, offering one of the few bright spots in an otherwise difficult landscape.

According to Andrew Whitmire, trade data analyst at the Tile Council of North America (TCNA), U.S. ceramic tile consumption reached 1.58 billion square feet through July 2025, down 1% from the same period last year. At the current pace, the category is on track to finish 2025 at roughly 2.67 billion square feet, which would mark the industry’s lowest level since 2014.

Suppliers and industry associations told FCNews that while the category is strained, it is also adapting. Companies are reevaluating sourcing, investing in training, leaning on domestic production where possible and doubling down on design and technology to counter mounting pressure from alternatives.

Economics hit hardest

Industry leaders point to a combination of key economic forces holding tile back. Not least of which is the struggling housing market.

As Jim Parello, executive vice president at Emser Tile, put it, “First, tariffs and global supply chain costs continue to inflate the base cost of goods. Second, persistent economic uncertainty makes builders, remodelers and distributors more cautious in their purchasing and forecasting. And third, higher overall labor costs place additional pressure on project budgets. These factors combined create a more competitive environment.”

The housing market was the biggest factor in the ceramic tile market contraction in 2025. It failed to recover the momentum suppliers were expecting. New residential construction—both single-family and multifamily—slowed sharply, while residential remodel remained muted throughout the year. “Housing has definitely slowed as we worked our way through 2025,” said Scott Maslowski, executive vice president of SSC sales and operations at Dal-Tile. “Interest rates did not come down as anticipated until late this year. That was a little bit of a disappointment for all of us. A big part of the volume decrease was the slow down—primarily in new home construction, both single-family and multifamily. And then you also had residential remodel uncertainty; a lot of consumers stayed on the sidelines.”

MSI’s Cementique

Raj Shah, CEO of MSI, echoed those observations, saying: “The slowdown in both new residential and residential remodeling projects is having a significant impact on the ceramic tile market in 2025. High mortgage rates and home prices are impacting on the resale market, as well as incremental tariffs are creating uncertainty in the market.”

However, there remains some optimism. Emser’s Parello noted, “Despite these challenges, construction and renovation activity has remained steady, and we’re still seeing consistent demand for tile across residential and commercial segments. What has changed is customers are more cautious, timelines are either tighter or more fluid and suppliers, including contractors, are expected to help bridge rising costs to keep projects moving forward.”

Mortgage rate impact

Fred J. Reitz III, senior vice president of commercial, AHF Products, added that while elevated mortgage rates and economic caution continued to suppress renovation activity early in the year, some parts of the market began to stabilize. “Increased activity in the multifamily and residential builder sectors helped support a modest rebound in tile demand as the year progressed.”

MSI’s Shah added, “The recent Fed rate reductions should help reignite the house resale market sometime late 2026, while importers and distributors are diligently looking at alternate countries to source material and reduce current tariff impact.”

Tariff instability added another layer of difficulty throughout the year, creating pricing complexity and uncertainty across the supply chain.

These economic pressures were compounded by softer consumer sentiment, which further restrained remodel spending and contributed to the overall slowdown. Maslowski emphasized that the unsettled economic environment discouraged many homeowners from initiating projects. “There is really a lack of consumer confidence because of all of the uncertainty going on,” he noted.

Together, the weakened housing market, tariff volatility and wavering consumer confidence converged to make 2025 another difficult year for the ceramic tile market. Despite these pressures, suppliers emphasized that demand has not disappeared. However, the path forward will continue to depend heavily on how quickly the broader economic picture stabilizes.

Labor shortages

While economic pressures weighed on ceramic tile demand in 2025, the industry agreed that its most persistent challenge remains the shortage of qualified installers. Even in a down market, demand for skilled labor continues to outpace supply. That imbalance affects installation quality and the overall accessibility of the category.

Bart Bettiga, executive director, NTCA, noted that the labor shortage remains a systemic issue across both the flooring and broader construction industries.

“A bigger challenge [than training] lies in recruitment and marketing of the opportunities that are there for people looking for career opportunity and development,” he told FCNews. “I do believe we are seeing more interest in the trades, and this is creating some momentum. However, a bigger challenge to just recruitment is related to compensation. It takes several years to become competent in all aspects of tile installation. Frankly, we feel tile installers should be paid a much higher wage than a flooring installer because it is a more challenging trade. Unfortunately, for a variety of reasons, this is often not the case.”

According to TCNA’s Whitmire, manufacturing growth—especially in Tennessee—has increased the need for a larger and more skilled workforce. To support that demand, TCNA and NTCA have worked with state partners to build tile-installation training into regional education systems.

Suppliers’ Perspective 

Suppliers, too, recognize the crisis for what it is. Maslowski described the issue as the leading non-economic barrier facing the industry. “Skilled labor continues to be our No. 1 challenge,” he said.

Daltile’s Haddonstone

Dal-Tile has responded by dramatically expanding its training footprint. “We continue to aggressively work with the CTEF and the NTCA,” he explained. “We really have doubled down in regard to the number of trainings we’re doing in our facilities across the United States. We’re working with trade schools now to drive behavior and get people more interested.”

Although he said he sees progress, Maslowski said “it’s going to take a long time to get there” before installer availability matches demand.

As suppliers, associations, trade schools and state partners continue these layered efforts, signs of improvement are emerging. Maslowski noted that interest among potential installers is growing, even if the shortage remains significant.

Bettiga, too, said he is seeing “more interest in the trades,” creating momentum.

Still, the path toward a fully replenished workforce will be measured in years, not months.

Innovation wins out

While the broader ceramic tile market struggled under economic pressure, product performance varied by price point, origin and end-use segment. Suppliers told FCNews the divide between commodity tile and higher-end, design-forward or domestically produced products grew even sharper in 2025.

“Entry level commodity products are having the most significant negative impact, while upper-end, sophisticated product lines are faring better during this year,” MSI’s Shah noted.

Imported ceramic felt pressure from tariff instability and global cost fluctuations. By contrast, domestically produced porcelain outperformed expectations in several cases. AHF’s Reitz said U.S.-made offerings were among the company’s strongest performers: “Domestically produced porcelain tile performed very well in 2025,” he explained, citing collections like Rural Retreat and Sociale.

Design-forward and technically advanced products continued to shine, supported by consumer preference for elevated aesthetics and multifunctional performance. Suppliers pointed to sustained interest in larger formats, enhanced textures, 3D synchronized structures, antibacterial technologies and more realistic printing. These innovations helped premium porcelain maintain demand even as the broader category contracted.

Commercial and multifamily work also provided lift for higher-performing materials. Dal-Tile’s Maslowski said commercial flooring “performed the best in 2025” as the segment continued to follow the residential surge seen in the years immediately after COVID-19. He added that commercial stability helped offset softness in residential.

Overall, 2025 further solidified a divide in the market. Commodity ceramic struggled under economic constraints, cost sensitivity and competitive alternatives. Domestic porcelain, high-design tile and advanced products remained resilient. As suppliers refined strategies, upper-end products appeared positioned to outperform even in a slump.

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Tariff update: Pending court decision leaves many in limbo

While the industry waits on a ruling from the Supreme Court regarding the legality/constitutionality of the Trump tariffs, there’s speculation brewing about the various scenarios that might unfold depending on the court’s decision.

The U.S. Supreme Court has fast-tracked challenges to President Trump’s use of IEEPA.

Scenario No. 1 entails the prospect of a full or even partial repeal of the tariffs and how such a development could affect the industry or the economy at large. In a keynote speech delivered to attendees at the recent 2025 NAFCD+NBMDA convention, Alex Hendrie, vice president of government relations for the National Association of Wholesalers (NAW), said the stakes are indeed very high.

First and foremost, he said, overruling the new tariffs not only removes a revenue stream for the federal government, but it could also create headaches as importers and agencies begin the process of requesting refunds. “With Trump focused on reshaping U.S. revenue sources, there is a greater reliance on tariffs while at the same time cutting taxes on U.S. businesses and individuals,” Hendrie stated. “When you add the numbers up side by side, the amount of taxes that were cut roughly equals the amount of tariffs the government is currently collecting.”

Industry weighs potential economic and political fallout

According to NAW’s internal research, the U.S. Treasury Dept. has to date collected more than $31 billion in tariff revenue—quadruple the amount collected in 2024. However, since the government plans to phase in the tariffs over time, the projected revenues could reach $300 billion, forecasts show.

Removing this revenue stream without replacing it, observers agree, could make the situation worse—especially in light of the impact that newly announced tax cuts are likely to have on an already high deficit.

Hendrie likened it to a Catch 22 situation. “That means, politically, we can’t really get rid of these tariffs even if we want to,” he stated. “There’s an increasingly budgetary need for these tariffs. And if they were to go away, then the U.S. government is going to have to find hundreds of billions in revenue to offset that. This creates the political problem.”

NAFCD attendees who sat in on Hendrie’s presentation attest to the complexities of the matter at hand. “Not all of the recent tariffs are at issue as the administration relied upon different authority to enact some versus other of the tariffs,” said Scott Rozmus, president and CEO of FlorStar Sales, a top-20 distributor. “Nonetheless, even the portion the Court has under review would represent billions of dollars. Those resources are now part of the government’s budgetary plan such as it is, so undoing and/or forgoing those revenues certainly will have significant political and economic ramifications. Any retroactivity could create administrative chaos.”

Experts outline possible outcomes

Scenario No. 2 involves additional legal maneuvers if, ultimately, the Supreme Court rules the tariffs unconstitutional. “While the Supreme Court may indeed override the tariffs as they are, most doubt that means they go away,” explained Jeff Striegel, president of Owing Mills, Md.- based Elias Wilf, a top 20 distributor. “Instead, they may simply be called something different and/or simply shifted to another classification of tariffs. Virtually no one—not even the attorneys who argued against the Trump administration at the Supreme Court—expects him to call it quits on tariffs, a key part of his overarching economic agenda.”

Striegel cited statutes that show an adverse Supreme Court decision could bar President Trump from invoking the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to implement the bulk of his sweeping tariff agenda. Specifically, it would force the president to seek out other statutes to effectuate his overhaul of global trade.

That would leave the administration with a couple of options: a) Trump could invoke Section 201 authority to impose duties if he or the International Trade Commission deems an increase in imports poses a threat or causes “serious injury” to American manufacturers. Using Section 232 authority, Trump could impose restrictions on imports if the U.S. secretary of Commerce determines that some circumstance of those imports “threaten to impair” national security; b) Trump could also direct the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative to impose tariffs as an enforcement measure of American rights under trade agreements and in response to certain foreign trade practices, following the office’s investigation, using Section 301 authority; and c) By invoking Section 338 authority, the president could place tariffs on imports “whenever he shall find as a fact” that the foreign nations discriminate against U.S. commerce.

Where the judges stand

In a dense but illuminating essay explaining the current dilemma facing the courts, JD Supra—a firm that helps clients and businesses navigate through complex legal and business issues—clarifies the judges’ positions on the matter. Based on the justices’ questions during oral arguments, it appears they are split 3-3-3.

Justices Thomas, Alito and Kavanaugh appear inclined to uphold the tariffs; Justices Kagan, Sotomayor and Jackson seem inclined to invalidate them; and Chief Justice Roberts and Justices Barrett and Gorsuch are undecided. Justices Barret and Gorsuch showed skepticism toward the government’s position (although for different reasons) while probing textual and structural paths that could sustain narrower regulatory tools. Chief Justice Roberts suggested that he sees the tariffs as violating the major questions doctrine, the essay showed.

If a majority of the justices find that the IEEPA tariffs are unlawful, the Court can avoid striking them down in full. The Court could take a narrower approach and find that IEEPA authorizes some tariffs but not those of the scope and duration imposed hereon. However, the Supreme Court is unlikely to remand any merit issues given that it has expedited proceedings.

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Akcel Partners, Flooring Stores United form strategic partnership

Atlanta—Akcel Partners announced a strategic partnership with Flooring Stores United (FSU) aimed at dramatically expanding the group’s membership and establishing a strong national footprint across the independent flooring retail sector. The alliance leverages Akcel Partners’ expertise in network growth and buying group development, paired with Flooring Stores United’s mission to deliver transparent, high-value programs to flooring retailers.

The partnership will focus on nationwide recruitment of independent flooring stores, expansion of vendor relationships and strengthening group-wide buying power—while preserving FSU’s dealer-friendly model.

“This partnership is about scale, strength and giving independent retailers the leverage they deserve,” said Barth Getto, partner at Akcel Partners. “Our role is clear: grow Flooring Stores United into a truly national organization with the reach and purchasing power to help every member compete at a higher level.”

Under the agreement, Akcel Partners will:

• Lead membership growth efforts, targeting independent retailers across all U.S. regions
• Develop a national footprint, ensuring FSU representation from coast to coast

This structure gives Flooring Stores United a dedicated, experienced growth engine allowing the organization to expand faster while keeping its core model simple, transparent and retailer-focused.

The partnership is anchored by the experience of Getto, whose background in flooring buying groups and dealer networks spans decades. Getto spent over 20 years growing the various divisions of CCA Global Partners, adding hundreds of new locations across North America. His floorcovering resume also includes positions at Armstrong World Industries, Shaw, Gulistan, World of Floors, FCA Network, QFloors and United Weavers.

Getto’s track record in building, scaling and strengthening dealer networks aligns directly with Flooring Stores United’s long-term growth strategy.

Flooring Stores United was built on the principle that independent retailers deserve strong vendor programs, transparent pricing and real support—without unnecessary complexity. The partnership with Akcel Partners accelerates that mission.

“We’re thrilled to work with Akcel Partners,” said FSU CEO, Neil Daley. “Barth’s industry knowledge, relationships and proven ability to scale dealer networks will help us grow faster and deliver more value to our members.”

The FSU difference

FSU helps independent flooring stores grow profits while staying fully independent, retaining control over their business while gaining the support and advantages of a national program. Its model is built around the needs of today’s retailers, not the bureaucracy of yesterday’s buying groups.

Key reasons dealers choose Flooring Stores United include:

• Proprietary, high-margin private-label brands exclusive to FSU retailers
• Exclusive territories designed to protect local market share
• Industry-leading Minimum Advertised Pricing (MAP) that protects margins and reduces race-to-the-bottom competition
• A simplified system that makes onboarding and training new sales professionals fast and intuitive

FSU was built for the 21st-century shopping experience, merging digital tools, consumer samples, room visualization, and modern in-store merchandising into one seamless system.

Our store-within-a-store showroom model is proven. FSU dealers consistently report industry-leading profits and higher close rates. Unlike traditional buying groups, FSU does not impose minimums or heavy commitments. Instead, we work every day to earn the trust and business of our members through performance, partnership, and results.

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Housing forecast stirs debate among leading executives

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun: ‘As we go into next year, the mortgage rate will be a little bit better.’

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is calling for a 14% increase for existing home sales in 2026, a forecast that flooring executives say they would love to see but cast serious doubt on happening.

“Next year is really the year that we will see a measurable increase in sales,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist for NAR, said in delivering the association’s Housing Outlook for 2026.

Yun said the expected rebound reflects easing mortgage rates to around 6%, continued job gains and improving market stability after several challenging years. “As we go into next year, the mortgage rate will be a little bit better,” Yun said. “It’s not going to be a big decline, but it will be a modest decline that will improve affordability.”

Existing home sales is perhaps the most important housing metric for the flooring industry as it sometimes represents two transactions—one from both the seller and the buyer.

NAR forecasts home prices to increase by 4% next year, supported by steady demand and persistent supply shortages.

Industry reaction

While welcoming positive news on the housing forecast, no one in the flooring industry that FCNews spoke to expects anything close to a 14% increase in 2026. Several distributors lowered their expectations for 2026 based on ITR Economics’ Brian Beaulieu’s address at the NAFCD show in Chicago.

Torrey Jaeckle, vice president of pricing and procurement for Jaeckle Distributors, Madison, Wis., cited ITR’s 12/12 rate of change (which compares the most recent 12 months of activity to the previous 12 months to reveal underlying cyclical trends) in his comments. “We’ve recently seen the 12/12 rate of change tick back up into positive territory for the first time since early 2022 (along with the overall U.S. data), and although I do expect additional rise, a 14% rise seems a bit overly optimistic to me,” Jaeckle said. “Currently the differential between the 30-year mortgage rate and the 10-year bond yield is in territory that suggests significant headwinds for housing. While I would love to see a 14% rise, I am not expecting that level of increase myself.”

Jaeckle’s sentiments were echoed by others, including Matt Hafer, president of Carrollton, Texas-based distributor Adleta. “As far as the forecast, that strikes me as very aggressive, especially with the comments from ITR,” Hafer said.

Several retailers said that while the 14% housing forecast was “too bullish” or “overly optimistic,” a rise in existing home sales is not out of the question for next year based on what they are seeing today. “Our store traffic has been at a record high for this time of year,” said Deb DeGraaf, co-owner, DeGraaf Interiors, with two Michigan locations. “Our installation schedule is booking well into 2026, so I believe these are sure signs good growth is possible to finish out the year and start the first quarter. Our two retail locations are seeing great traffic. One is better than the other because it has only been open for one year and it is in a very good spot with a lot of exposure on a main road.”

With nine locations in Iowa and Illinois, Carpetland USA (The Langan Group) typically sees a mixed bag when it comes to real estate trends. “In our larger markets, I would say the housing trends are better than our smaller markets, but a double-digit increase seems to be a bit bullish to me,” said Eric Langan, president/owner. “Also, being in the Midwest, we typically find ourselves a little behind or late to see national trends. Any increase is surely welcomed. I just think a double-digit increase in our markets is a bit of a reach.”

The Flooring Edge, with three Ohio locations, has seen existing home sales “up a tick” despite better retail traffic. “The major issue facing housing is that homeowners are locked into substantially lower mortgage rates in the low threes,” said Craig Phillips, vice president. “This will continue to impact sales of existing homes. There is a sentiment that it doesn’t make sense to get out of the lower rate. So, I think a 14% increase seems a little steep, but I hope they are right.”

Others share in the optimism as well, even if a bit rose-colored. “There is no question there is a shortage of housing,” said Scott Rozmus, president/CEO for FlorStar Sales, Romeoville, Ill. “Likewise, if mortgage rates decline, that should incentivize some potential buyers who are on the sidelines to take the plunge.”

NAR’s Housing Outlook for 2026 delved into the demographics behind its sales numbers. Among the findings:

First-time home buyers

• First-time home buyers shrank to a historic low of just 21% of all buyers in 2024. Prior to 2008, the share of first-time buyers had a historical norm of 40%.
• While the share of first-time buyers is at its lowest level, the age of first-time buyers has risen to the highest recorded. The median age of first-time home buyers is now 40. In the 1980s, the typical first-time home buyer was in his/her late 20s.

Repeat home buyers

Highlighting the rupture in the housing market is the changing landscape for a repeat home buyer. Repeat buyers can enter the housing market with large down payments (median of 23%).

• 30% paid cash and did not finance their home. Repeat buyers have continued to earn housing equity as home prices increase.
• Home sellers have owned their home for a record high of 11 years before selling.
• Baby boomers are dominating the housing market, often buying with cash or tapping the substantial home-equity gains they’ve built over years of ownership.

Household composition

• Among all home buyers, 61% are married couples, 21% are single women and 9% are single men.
• Among first-time buyers, 25% are single women and 10% are single men; the share of married couples remained flat at 50%.

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Coverings extends awards deadlines

Las Vegas—Coverings, the most comprehensive tile and stone event in North America, has extended the deadline to Dec. 16 for its two award programs: the Coverings Installation & Design (CID) Awards and the Coverings Rock Star program. The winners will be recognized at the show, to be held March 30 – April 2, 2026.

CID Awards

The 2026 Coverings Installation & Design (CID) Awards celebrates outstanding achievements in the design and installation of ceramic tile and natural stone in residential and commercial projects. As always, multiple entries are accepted and there is no cost to enter.

Enter Now

Coverings Rock Star

The Coverings Rock Stars honor the best and brightest young talent among distributors, retailers, architects, builders, fabricators, installers, contractors and all those involved in the tile and stone industry. If you know of a young industry talent that has a bright future, nominate them to be a Coverings Rock Star. They must be 35 years or younger and currently working in the industry.

Nominate A Rock Star Now

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Brett Miller joins Olde Wood as general manager

Magnolia, Ohio—Brett Miller joined Olde Wood Ltd., as general manager. Miller brings more than 34 years of experience in the hardwood flooring industry.

“I’m thrilled to join the Olde Wood Ltd team,” Miller said. “Throughout my career, I’ve been passionate about quality craftsmanship and continuous education in our industry. Olde Wood’s commitment to reclaimed wood and sustainability aligns perfectly with my values. I look forward to working with this talented team to deliver exceptional products while supporting the growth and success of our customers and the industry.”

Miller has worked as an installer, finisher, inspector and educator. Most recently, he served as vice president of technical standards, education, certification and membership at the National Wood Flooring Association (NWFA). He was the primary author of the group’s technical guidelines and standards, which are widely recognized as the benchmark for installation, sanding and finishing and maintenance.

At the NWFA, Miller also oversaw the Regional Instructor program and Train the Trainer initiatives. He mentored instructors who train thousands of professionals each year across North America. He has written hundreds of articles for industry publications, hosted the Wood Talk podcast and Tech Talk webinars and presented at industry events in the United States and abroad.

Olde Wood Ltd was founded in 1997 by Tommy and Mandy Sancic. The company has grown from a one-man operation into one of the nation’s largest makers of wide plank hardwood flooring. It specializes in transforming vintage barn wood and traditional timber into custom solid and engineered flooring for projects across the country.

“We are excited to welcome Brett to the Olde Wood family,” Tommy Sancic said. “His knowledge, leadership and passion for education make him an invaluable addition to our team. Brett’s expertise and commitment to advancing the craft align with our mission to provide high-quality reclaimed and traditional hardwood flooring. His experience will be essential as we continue to grow and serve our customers with innovation and excellence.”

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Louisville Tile hosts second annual Tile on the Turf event

Louisville, Ky.—Louisville Tile hosted its second annual “Tile on the Turf” event at Club SI at Churchill Downs. The record-breaking gathering brought together nearly 400 industry partners and employees for racing, networking and celebration.

The event, sponsored by 18 industry partners, featured a full day of horse races, food and conversation. Attendees connected with peers, viewed new tile trends and experienced the atmosphere of Churchill Downs. Sponsors also showcased new product offerings that highlighted current innovations in the industry.

Louisville Tile sponsored six of the nine races. Its “Superfecta” sponsors received exclusive experiences that included naming a race that appeared in the official program. They also watched horses saddle in the paddock and presented the winning trophy from the Winner’s Circle.

“We were honored to host such a successful event like Tile on the Turf,” said Crosby Hall, chief administrative officer at Louisville Tile. “Building and maintaining relationships are at the heart of everything we do. This event allows us to strengthen existing bonds and create new partnerships. It’s wonderful to bring everyone together for a day of connection and celebration that inspires our continued success.”

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